Republicans far and away carry the most rural areas of the state, though the large populations concentrated in Texas’ metro areas tend to vote more frequently for Democrats, leaving some to wonder if Texans will elect a Democrat for statewide office in the near future.
To provide a metric for the partisan leanings of each county, The Texan has compiled the Texas Partisan Index (TPI).
The index is based on district-level results in the statewide general elections of 2018 and 2020 using data obtained from the secretary of state.
For each year, the TPI identifies each district’s median percentage of votes for Republicans compared to Democrats, excluding third party candidates. The median result for each year is then averaged and rounded to a whole number.
The median vote for Republicans statewide was 53.7 percent in 2018 and 54.8 percent in 2020, so the state as a whole has a current TPI of R-54%. In a previous analysis based on the election results from 2016 and 2018, the statewide TPI was R-56%.
Thus, the state as a whole still leans toward Republicans — but has become increasingly competitive.
However, that competitiveness does not expand to the vast majority of Texas’ 254 counties.
196 counties have a TPI of R-70% or higher, while another 25 counties have a TPI between R-56% and R-69%.
At the other extreme, six counties — including Travis County and five counties close to or along the border — have a TPI of D-70% or higher. Another 12 counties have a TPI between D-56% and D-69%, which includes Dallas, Bexar, El Paso, Hidalgo, and Cameron counties.
The remaining 15 counties are most competitive with TPI ratings between D-55% and R-55%.
Among the competitive counties, those that lean slightly more toward Republicans include Williamson, Tarrant, and Caldwell counties, while those that lean more toward Democrats include Fort Bend, Hays, and Harris counties.
As reflected in the 2020 presidential election, the counties that have seen the largest change in voting patterns in recent years are mostly South Texas and border counties that have long voted favorably for Democrats but are beginning to elect more and more Republicans.
The full TPI ratings for all 254 counties can be found below. TPI ratings are also available for the state House, state Senate, congressional districts, and State Board of Education districts.
| County | Current TPI (18-20) | Previous TPI (16-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Zavala | D-75% | D-80% |
| Jim Hogg | D-71% | D-79% |
| Presidio | D-71% | D-73% |
| Travis | D-71% | D-68% |
| Brooks | D-70% | D-76% |
| Starr | D-70% | D-79% |
| El Paso | D-69% | D-71% |
| Webb | D-69% | D-74% |
| Dimmit | D-68% | D-70% |
| Duval | D-67% | D-73% |
| Maverick | D-66% | D-75% |
| Hidalgo | D-65% | D-70% |
| Dallas | D-63% | D-61% |
| Willacy | D-63% | D-67% |
| Zapata | D-61% | D-67% |
| Cameron | D-61% | D-64% |
| Bexar | D-57% | D-55% |
| Culberson | D-57% | D-61% |
| Harris | D-55% | D-54% |
| Hays | D-54% | D-50% |
| Fort Bend | D-53% | D-51% |
| Frio | D-53% | D-57% |
| Lasalle | D-53% | D-57% |
| Jim Wells | D-51% | D-57% |
| Kleberg | D-51% | D-52% |
| Jefferson | R-50% | D-50% |
| Val Verde | R-51% | D-53% |
| Brewster | R-51% | R-51% |
| Nueces | R-51% | R-51% |
| Reeves | R-52% | D-55% |
| Williamson | R-52% | R-56% |
| Tarrant | R-53% | R-55% |
| Caldwell | R-55% | R-57% |
| Collin | R-57% | R-61% |
| Bell | R-57% | R-59% |
| Uvalde | R-57% | R-55% |
| Bastrop | R-58% | R-59% |
| Denton | R-58% | R-61% |
| Kenedy | R-59% | D-50% |
| Brazos | R-60% | R-64% |
| Hudspeth | R-61% | R-59% |
| Brazoria | R-61% | R-63% |
| Jeff Davis | R-62% | R-62% |
| Bee | R-62% | R-59% |
| Galveston | R-62% | R-63% |
| Waller | R-64% | R-64% |
| San Patricio | R-64% | R-63% |
| Mclennan | R-64% | R-65% |
| Guadalupe | R-64% | R-67% |
| Pecos | R-65% | R-61% |
| Atascosa | R-65% | R-64% |
| Refugio | R-66% | R-64% |
| Nacogdoches | R-67% | R-68% |
| Walker | R-67% | R-68% |
| Lubbock | R-68% | R-70% |
| Coryell | R-69% | R-70% |
| Falls | R-69% | R-67% |
| Kaufman | R-69% | R-73% |
| Robertson | R-70% | R-67% |
| Ellis | R-70% | R-73% |
| Morris | R-70% | R-69% |
| Gregg | R-70% | R-71% |
| Terrell | R-70% | R-66% |
| Victoria | R-71% | R-71% |
| Calhoun | R-71% | R-68% |
| Potter | R-71% | R-72% |
| Smith | R-71% | R-73% |
| Kinney | R-71% | R-70% |
| Wharton | R-72% | R-71% |
| Medina | R-72% | R-73% |
| Matagorda | R-72% | R-70% |
| Marion | R-72% | R-71% |
| Crosby | R-72% | R-70% |
| Rockwall | R-72% | R-75% |
| Camp | R-72% | R-71% |
| Bowie | R-72% | R-73% |
| Wichita | R-72% | R-74% |
| Deaf Smith | R-72% | R-73% |
| Ector | R-72% | R-71% |
| Karnes | R-72% | R-70% |
| Titus | R-73% | R-72% |
| Harrison | R-73% | R-73% |
| Tom Green | R-74% | R-75% |
| Navarro | R-74% | R-74% |
| Angelina | R-74% | R-74% |
| Comal | R-74% | R-77% |
| Crockett | R-74% | R-71% |
| Montgomery | R-75% | R-77% |
| Wilson | R-75% | R-75% |
| Blanco | R-75% | R-76% |
| Gonzales | R-75% | R-75% |
| San Augustine | R-75% | R-73% |
| Hale | R-76% | R-75% |
| Taylor | R-76% | R-77% |
| Houston | R-76% | R-75% |
| Limestone | R-76% | R-76% |
| Castro | R-76% | R-73% |
| Grayson | R-76% | R-77% |
| Milam | R-76% | R-75% |
| Ward | R-76% | R-74% |
| Colorado | R-77% | R-77% |
| Dawson | R-77% | R-75% |
| Washington | R-77% | R-77% |
| Aransas | R-77% | R-76% |
| Foard | R-77% | R-72% |
| Goliad | R-77% | R-73% |
| Hunt | R-77% | R-78% |
| Grimes | R-77% | R-76% |
| Floyd | R-77% | R-76% |
| Bailey | R-78% | R-77% |
| Fisher | R-78% | R-74% |
| Johnson | R-78% | R-79% |
| Swisher | R-78% | R-76% |
| Burnet | R-78% | R-79% |
| Polk | R-78% | R-78% |
| Red River | R-78% | R-76% |
| Kerr | R-78% | R-80% |
| Nolan | R-78% | R-77% |
| Lee | R-78% | R-78% |
| Terry | R-78% | R-77% |
| Sutton | R-78% | R-78% |
| Wilbarger | R-78% | R-78% |
| Howard | R-79% | R-78% |
| Rusk | R-79% | R-79% |
| Cherokee | R-79% | R-79% |
| Burleson | R-79% | R-78% |
| Anderson | R-79% | R-79% |
| Newton | R-79% | R-75% |
| Lamar | R-79% | R-79% |
| Midland | R-79% | R-80% |
| Liberty | R-80% | R-79% |
| Madison | R-80% | R-79% |
| Shelby | R-80% | R-80% |
| Kendall | R-80% | R-82% |
| Schleicher | R-80% | R-79% |
| Cass | R-80% | R-79% |
| Fayette | R-80% | R-80% |
| Winkler | R-80% | R-77% |
| Cochran | R-80% | R-79% |
| Moore | R-80% | R-80% |
| Lampasas | R-80% | R-81% |
| Hopkins | R-81% | R-80% |
| Austin | R-81% | R-81% |
| Knox | R-81% | R-79% |
| Lamb | R-81% | R-80% |
| Hill | R-81% | R-80% |
| Llano | R-81% | R-82% |
| Jasper | R-81% | R-80% |
| Henderson | R-81% | R-81% |
| Freestone | R-81% | R-80% |
| Menard | R-81% | R-82% |
| San Jacinto | R-81% | R-80% |
| Bandera | R-81% | R-82% |
| Lynn | R-81% | R-80% |
| Trinity | R-81% | R-80% |
| Mason | R-81% | R-82% |
| Crane | R-81% | R-79% |
| Randall | R-82% | R-83% |
| Orange | R-82% | R-81% |
| Gillespie | R-82% | R-83% |
| Hockley | R-82% | R-82% |
| Chambers | R-82% | R-82% |
| Fannin | R-82% | R-81% |
| Panola | R-82% | R-82% |
| Parmer | R-82% | R-82% |
| Dewitt | R-82% | R-82% |
| Stonewall | R-82% | R-78% |
| Haskell | R-82% | R-79% |
| Palo Pinto | R-82% | R-82% |
| Erath | R-83% | R-83% |
| Bosque | R-83% | R-82% |
| Cottle | R-83% | R-82% |
| Hood | R-83% | R-84% |
| Jackson | R-84% | R-83% |
| Live Oak | R-84% | R-82% |
| Yoakum | R-84% | R-82% |
| Andrews | R-84% | R-82% |
| Parker | R-84% | R-84% |
| Concho | R-84% | R-83% |
| Delta | R-84% | R-82% |
| Hall | R-84% | R-82% |
| Cooke | R-84% | R-84% |
| Upshur | R-84% | R-84% |
| Edwards | R-84% | R-79% |
| Mitchell | R-84% | R-83% |
| Jones | R-84% | R-83% |
| Reagan | R-84% | R-83% |
| Tyler | R-84% | R-82% |
| Franklin | R-85% | R-84% |
| Somervell | R-85% | R-85% |
| Hardeman | R-85% | R-82% |
| Wise | R-85% | R-85% |
| Wood | R-85% | R-85% |
| Real | R-85% | R-85% |
| Comanche | R-85% | R-84% |
| Upton | R-85% | R-81% |
| Martin | R-86% | R-85% |
| Mcculloch | R-86% | R-84% |
| Hamilton | R-86% | R-85% |
| Garza | R-86% | R-85% |
| Scurry | R-86% | R-85% |
| Dickens | R-86% | R-85% |
| Rains | R-86% | R-85% |
| Van Zandt | R-87% | R-86% |
| Lavaca | R-87% | R-86% |
| Irion | R-87% | R-87% |
| Brown | R-87% | R-87% |
| Childress | R-87% | R-87% |
| Hardin | R-87% | R-87% |
| Dallam | R-87% | R-86% |
| Sabine | R-88% | R-86% |
| Collingsworth | R-88% | R-87% |
| Leon | R-88% | R-87% |
| Young | R-88% | R-88% |
| Loving | R-88% | R-86% |
| Eastland | R-88% | R-88% |
| Runnels | R-88% | R-88% |
| Hemphill | R-88% | R-89% |
| Baylor | R-88% | R-86% |
| Clay | R-88% | R-87% |
| Montague | R-88% | R-88% |
| Donley | R-89% | R-88% |
| Kent | R-89% | R-85% |
| Gaines | R-89% | R-87% |
| Kimble | R-89% | R-89% |
| Hutchinson | R-89% | R-89% |
| Mills | R-89% | R-88% |
| San Saba | R-89% | R-88% |
| Coleman | R-89% | R-89% |
| Briscoe | R-89% | R-88% |
| Callahan | R-90% | R-89% |
| Stephens | R-90% | R-89% |
| Gray | R-90% | R-90% |
| Lipscomb | R-90% | R-89% |
| Carson | R-90% | R-90% |
| Archer | R-91% | R-90% |
| Sherman | R-91% | R-89% |
| Coke | R-91% | R-90% |
| Ochiltree | R-91% | R-91% |
| Throckmorton | R-91% | R-88% |
| Jack | R-91% | R-90% |
| Mcmullen | R-91% | R-90% |
| Hartley | R-91% | R-91% |
| Oldham | R-92% | R-91% |
| Sterling | R-92% | R-91% |
| Shackelford | R-92% | R-93% |
| Motley | R-93% | R-92% |
| Hansford | R-93% | R-93% |
| Wheeler | R-93% | R-93% |
| Armstrong | R-93% | R-92% |
| Glasscock | R-94% | R-94% |
| Borden | R-95% | R-93% |
| King | R-96% | R-96% |
| Roberts | R-96% | R-96% |
###
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Daniel Friend
Daniel Friend is the Marketing and Media Manager for The Texan. After graduating with a double-major in Political Science and Humanities, he wrote for The Texan as a reporter through June 2022. In his spare time, you're likely to find him working on The Testimony of Calvin Lewis, an Abolition of Man-inspired novel and theatrical podcast.
