Below is the TPI for all Texas House districts. The TPI for all senate districts can be found here.
The index is modeled after the Cook Political Report’s Partisan Voting Index (PVI), which considers the partisan leanings of all congressional districts in the nation by looking at the share of votes for Republicans and Democrats in the past two presidential elections.
Whereas Cook’s PVI is limited to the only national election, a number of statewide elections can be used to compare Texas legislative districts.
Using data obtained from the Texas Legislative Council, the TPI identifies each district’s median percentage of Republican votes relative to those cast for Democrats out of every statewide race.
The district medians for the 2016 and 2018 general elections are then averaged to calculate the index number for each district.
Statewide during the last presidential election in 2016, voting results between Republicans and Democrats favored the GOP with a median share of 58 percent.
In 2018, during the U.S. Senate race between Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Beto O’Rourke, results shifted notably toward Democrats, but Republicans still led with a median of 54 percent.
Consequently, the current statewide TPI is labeled as R-56%.
Of the 150 house districts in Texas, 89 have a TPI favoring Republicans, 60 have a TPI favoring Democrats, and one is evenly split between the two major parties.
Currently, there are 83 seats held by Republicans and 67 held by Democrats.
House District (HD) 134 with Rep. Sarah Davis (R-West University Place) is the only district with a Democratic-leaning TPI that is held by a Republican.
Meanwhile, seven districts that lean Republican are controlled by Democrats:
- HD 52 with Rep. James Talarico (D-Round Rock) at R-51%;
- HD 45 with Rep. Erin Zwiener (D-Driftwood) at R-52%;
- HD 114 with Rep. John Turner (D-Dallas) at R-52%;
- HD 135 with Rep. Jon Rosenthal (D-Houston) at R-52%;
- HD 65 with Rep. Michelle Beckley (D-Carrollton) at R-52%;
- HD 47 with Rep. Vikki Goodwin (D-Austin) at R-53%; and,
- HD 132 with Rep. Gina Calanni (D-Katy) at R-53%.
All seven of the Democrats were first elected in 2018, with Zwiener, Talarico, and Turner winning open seats previously held by GOP representatives while the other four defeated Republican incumbents.
Republicans lost another five seats in 2018, with each having a TPI that is split evenly or slightly favors Democrats:
- HD 136 with Rep. John Bucy III (D-Austin) at an even TPI;
- HD 113 with Rep. Rhetta Bowers (D-Garland) at D-51%;
- HD 102 with Rep. Ana-Maria Ramos (D-Richardson) at D-51%;
- HD 115 with Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Carrollton) at D-51%; and,
- HD 105 with Rep. Terry Meza (D-Irving) at D-54%.
This year, the GOP hopes to regain some of the seats with some well-funded candidates challenging Democratic incumbents in several of the seats listed above.
However, Democrats hope to build upon their wins of 2018 and are aiming to win some potentially vulnerable Republican districts.
Besides Davis’ seat, three other GOP-held districts had statewide median votes that shifted to favor Democrats in 2018:
- HD 112 with Rep. Angie Chen Button (R-Richardson), which has a TPI of R-51%, but had a median Republican vote of 48.2 percent in 2018;
- HD 138 with retiring Rep. Dwayne Bohac (R-Houston), which has a TPI of R-52%, but had a median Republican vote of 49.2 percent in 2018; and,
- HD 108 with Rep. Morgan Meyer (R-Dallas), which has a TPI of R-54%, but had a median Republican vote of 49.3 percent in 2018.
Although there are plenty of competitive house districts in play, a little over two-thirds of the seats are solidly held by one of the parties.
59 of the Republican-leaning districts have a TPI greater than R-60%, and 49 of the Democratic-leaning districts have a TPI greater than D-60%.
By the index’s rating, HD 60 is the most Republican district with a TPI of R-86%. Rep. Mike Lang (R-Granbury) currently represents the district, but is retiring from the position. In July, Glenn Rogers won the GOP primary run-off election and no Democrat is running against him in the general election.
In contrast, the most Democratic district is HD 110, currently held by Rep. Toni Rose (D-Dallas), with a TPI of D-88%.
The index can be viewed in the map or table below, or in a spreadsheet here.
|House District||Incumbent||Official TPI|
|60||Mike Lang (R)||R-86%|
|61||Phil King (R)||R-85%|
|68||Drew Springer (R)||R-85%|
|86||John T. Smithee (R)||R-83%|
|88||Ken King (R)||R-83%|
|19||James White (R)||R-82%|
|2||Dan Flynn (R)||R-81%|
|16||Will Metcalf (R)||R-81%|
|82||Tom Craddick (R)||R-80%|
|59||J.D. Sheffield (R)||R-80%|
|58||Dewayne Burns (R)||R-80%|
|83||Dustin Burrows (R)||R-79%|
|13||Ben Leman (R)||R-79%|
|5||Cole Hefner (R)||R-79%|
|53||Andrew Murr (R)||R-79%|
|73||Kyle Biedermann (R)||R-79%|
|71||Stan Lambert (R)||R-78%|
|8||Cody Harris (R)||R-78%|
|62||Reggie Smith (R)||R-78%|
|3||Cecil Bell (R)||R-78%|
|72||Drew Darby (R)||R-77%|
|87||Four Price (R)||R-77%|
|69||James Frank (R)||R-77%|
|9||Chris Paddie (R)||R-77%|
|57||Trent Ashby (R)||R-77%|
|21||Dade Phelan (R)||R-77%|
|4||Keith Bell (R)||R-76%|
|1||Gary VanDeaver (R)||R-76%|
|18||Ernest Bailes (R)||R-75%|
|7||Jay Dean (R)||R-75%|
|11||Travis Clardy (R)||R-74%|
|20||Terry Wilson (R)||R-73%|
|10||John Wray (R)||R-73%|
|81||Brooks Landgraf (R)||R-73%|
|30||Geanie W. Morrison (R)||R-73%|
|24||Greg Bonnen (R)||R-72%|
|98||Giovanni Capriglione (R)||R-72%|
|130||Tom Oliverson (R)||R-72%|
|25||Dennis Bonnen (R)||R-72%|
|15||Steve Toth (R)||R-72%|
|6||Matt Schaefer (R)||R-70%|
|63||Tan Parker (R)||R-70%|
|128||Briscoe Cain (R)||R-70%|
|44||John Kuempel (R)||R-69%|
|56||Charles "Doc" Anderson (R)||R-69%|
|33||Justin Holland (R)||R-68%|
|55||Hugh Shine (R)||R-67%|
|12||Kyle Kacal (R)||R-67%|
|70||Scott Sanford (R)||R-66%|
|99||Charlie Geren (R)||R-66%|
|91||Stephanie Klick (R)||R-66%|
|127||Dan Huberty (R)||R-65%|
|122||Lyle Larson (R)||R-63%|
|89||Candy Noble (R)||R-63%|
|17||John Cyrier (R)||R-63%|
|84||John Frullo (R)||R-63%|
|106||Jared Patterson (R)||R-63%|
|150||Valoree Swanson (R)||R-63%|
|133||Jim Murphy (R)||R-62%|
|129||Dennis Paul (R)||R-60%|
|14||John Raney (R)||R-59%|
|94||Tony Tinderholt (R)||R-58%|
|85||Phil Stephenson (R)||R-58%|
|93||Matt Krause (R)||R-58%|
|23||Mayes Middleton (R)||R-57%|
|121||Steve Allison (R)||R-57%|
|29||Ed Thompson (R)||R-57%|
|92||Jonathan Stickland (R)||R-57%|
|97||Craig Goldman (R)||R-57%|
|28||Gary Gates (R)||R-57%|
|64||Lynn Stucky (R)||R-57%|
|126||Sam Harless (R)||R-57%|
|32||Todd Hunter (R)||R-56%|
|67||Jeff Leach (R)||R-55%|
|26||Rick Miller (R)||R-55%|
|96||Bill Zedler (R)||R-55%|
|66||Matt Shaheen (R)||R-55%|
|43||J.M. Lozano (R)||R-55%|
|54||Brad Buckley (R)||R-54%|
|108||Morgan Meyer (R)||R-54%|
|132||Gina Calanni (D)||R-53%|
|47||Vikki Goodwin (D)||R-53%|
|65||Michelle Beckley (D)||R-52%|
|138||Dwayne Bohac (R)||R-52%|
|135||Jon Rosenthal (D)||R-52%|
|114||John Turner (D)||R-52%|
|45||Erin Zwiener (D)||R-52%|
|52||James Talarico (D)||R-51%|
|112||Angie Chen Button (R)||R-51%|
|136||John Bucy III (D)||EVEN|
|134||Sarah Davis (R)||D-51%|
|113||Rhetta Bowers (D)||D-51%|
|102||Ana-Maria Ramos (D)||D-51%|
|115||Julie Johnson (D)||D-51%|
|107||Victoria Neave (D)||D-53%|
|105||Thresa "Terry" Meza (D)||D-54%|
|117||Philip Cortez (D)||D-54%|
|34||Abel Herrero (D)||D-55%|
|31||Ryan Guillen (D)||D-56%|
|74||Poncho Nevárez (D)||D-57%|
|118||Leo Pacheco (D)||D-58%|
|144||Mary Ann Perez (D)||D-60%|
|41||Bobby Guerra (D)||D-60%|
|78||Joe Moody (D)||D-61%|
|119||Roland Gutierrez (D)||D-62%|
|148||Anna Eastman (D)||D-63%|
|149||Hubert Vo (D)||D-63%|
|125||Ray Lopez (D)||D-63%|
|124||Ina Minjarez (D)||D-64%|
|35||Oscar Longoria (D)||D-65%|
|38||Eddie Lucio III (D)||D-65%|
|120||Barbara Gervin-Hawkins (D)||D-65%|
|80||Tracy O. King (D)||D-66%|
|50||Celia Israel (D)||D-66%|
|123||Diego Bernal (D)||D-66%|
|48||Donna Howard (D)||D-66%|
|116||Trey Martinez-Fischer (D)||D-66%|
|22||Joe Deshotel (D)||D-67%|
|37||Alex Dominguez (D)||D-68%|
|137||Gene Wu (D)||D-68%|
|145||Christina Morales (D)||D-68%|
|101||Chris Turner (D)||D-68%|
|27||Ron Reynolds (D)||D-70%|
|77||Evelina "Lina" Ortega (D)||D-71%|
|79||Art Fierro (D)||D-71%|
|39||Armando "Mando" Martinez (D)||D-71%|
|40||Terry Canales (D)||D-72%|
|143||Ana Hernandez (D)||D-73%|
|42||Richard Peña Raymond (D)||D-74%|
|36||Sergio Muñoz Jr. (D)||D-74%|
|103||Rafael Anchia (D)||D-75%|
|75||Mary González (D)||D-75%|
|90||Ramon Romero Jr. (D)||D-76%|
|95||Nicole Collier (D)||D-76%|
|140||Armando Walle (D)||D-76%|
|139||Jarvis Johnson (D)||D-77%|
|142||Harold Dutton Jr. (D)||D-77%|
|104||Jessica González (D)||D-78%|
|100||Lorraine Birabil (D)||D-78%|
|111||Yvonne Davis (D)||D-79%|
|49||Gina Hinojosa (D)||D-79%|
|147||Garnet Coleman (D)||D-80%|
|146||Shawn Thierry (D)||D-80%|
|76||Cesar Blanco (D)||D-80%|
|46||Sheryl Cole (D)||D-82%|
|109||Carl Sherman Sr. (D)||D-83%|
|51||Eddie Rodriguez (D)||D-84%|
|131||Alma Allen (D)||D-85%|
|141||Senfronia Thompson (D)||D-87%|
|110||Toni Rose (D)||D-88%|
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Daniel Friend is a reporter for The Texan. He participated in a Great Books program at Azusa Pacific University and graduated in 2019 with a degree in Political Science. He has studied C.S. Lewis’s science fiction trilogy and in his spare time you might find him writing his own novel partly inspired by the series.