Battleground 2020Elections 2020Statewide NewsTexas Partisan Index: Rating House Districts From Most Republican to Most Democratic

Here's a breakdown of the partisan leanings of each of Texas' 150 house districts — from red to blue.
October 7, 2020
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The Texan’s Texas Partisan Index (TPI) analyzes the political leanings of every Texas legislative district based on results from statewide elections in 2016 and 2018.

Below is the TPI for all Texas House districts. The TPI for all senate districts can be found here.

The Data

The index is modeled after the Cook Political Report’s Partisan Voting Index (PVI), which considers the partisan leanings of all congressional districts in the nation by looking at the share of votes for Republicans and Democrats in the past two presidential elections.

Whereas Cook’s PVI is limited to the only national election, a number of statewide elections can be used to compare Texas legislative districts.

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Using data obtained from the Texas Legislative Council, the TPI identifies each district’s median percentage of Republican votes relative to those cast for Democrats out of every statewide race.

The district medians for the 2016 and 2018 general elections are then averaged to calculate the index number for each district.

Results

Statewide during the last presidential election in 2016, voting results between Republicans and Democrats favored the GOP with a median share of 58 percent. 

In 2018, during the U.S. Senate race between Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Beto O’Rourke, results shifted notably toward Democrats, but Republicans still led with a median of 54 percent.

Consequently, the current statewide TPI is labeled as R-56%.

Of the 150 house districts in Texas, 89 have a TPI favoring Republicans, 60 have a TPI favoring Democrats, and one is evenly split between the two major parties.

Currently, there are 83 seats held by Republicans and 67 held by Democrats.

House District (HD) 134 with Rep. Sarah Davis (R-West University Place) is the only district with a Democratic-leaning TPI that is held by a Republican.

Meanwhile, seven districts that lean Republican are controlled by Democrats:

  • HD 52 with Rep. James Talarico (D-Round Rock) at R-51%;
  • HD 45 with Rep. Erin Zwiener (D-Driftwood) at R-52%;
  • HD 114  with Rep. John Turner (D-Dallas) at R-52%;
  • HD 135 with Rep. Jon Rosenthal (D-Houston) at R-52%;
  • HD 65 with Rep. Michelle Beckley (D-Carrollton) at R-52%;
  • HD 47 with Rep. Vikki Goodwin (D-Austin) at R-53%; and,
  • HD 132 with Rep. Gina Calanni (D-Katy) at R-53%.

All seven of the Democrats were first elected in 2018, with Zwiener, Talarico, and Turner winning open seats previously held by GOP representatives while the other four defeated Republican incumbents.

Republicans lost another five seats in 2018, with each having a TPI that is split evenly or slightly favors Democrats:

  • HD 136 with Rep. John Bucy III (D-Austin) at an even TPI;
  • HD 113 with Rep. Rhetta Bowers (D-Garland) at D-51%;
  • HD 102 with Rep. Ana-Maria Ramos (D-Richardson) at D-51%;
  • HD 115 with Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Carrollton) at D-51%; and,
  • HD 105 with Rep. Terry Meza (D-Irving) at D-54%.

This year, the GOP hopes to regain some of the seats with some well-funded candidates challenging Democratic incumbents in several of the seats listed above.

However, Democrats hope to build upon their wins of 2018 and are aiming to win some potentially vulnerable Republican districts.

Besides Davis’ seat, three other GOP-held districts had statewide median votes that shifted to favor Democrats in 2018:

  • HD 112 with Rep. Angie Chen Button (R-Richardson), which has a TPI of R-51%, but had a median Republican vote of 48.2 percent in 2018;
  • HD 138 with retiring Rep. Dwayne Bohac (R-Houston), which has a TPI of R-52%, but had a median Republican vote of 49.2 percent in 2018; and,
  • HD 108 with Rep. Morgan Meyer (R-Dallas), which has a TPI of R-54%, but had a median Republican vote of 49.3 percent in 2018.

Although there are plenty of competitive house districts in play, a little over two-thirds of the seats are solidly held by one of the parties.

59 of the Republican-leaning districts have a TPI greater than R-60%, and 49 of the Democratic-leaning districts have a TPI greater than D-60%.

By the index’s rating, HD 60 is the most Republican district with a TPI of R-86%. Rep. Mike Lang (R-Granbury) currently represents the district, but is retiring from the position. In July, Glenn Rogers won the GOP primary run-off election and no Democrat is running against him in the general election.

In contrast, the most Democratic district is HD 110, currently held by Rep. Toni Rose (D-Dallas), with a TPI of D-88%.

The index can be viewed in the map or table below, or in a spreadsheet here.

House DistrictIncumbentOfficial TPI
Statewide TotalR-56%
60Mike Lang (R)R-86%
61Phil King (R)R-85%
68Drew Springer (R)R-85%
86John T. Smithee (R)R-83%
88Ken King (R)R-83%
19James White (R)R-82%
2Dan Flynn (R)R-81%
16Will Metcalf (R)R-81%
82Tom Craddick (R)R-80%
59J.D. Sheffield (R)R-80%
58Dewayne Burns (R)R-80%
83Dustin Burrows (R)R-79%
13Ben Leman (R)R-79%
5Cole Hefner (R)R-79%
53Andrew Murr (R)R-79%
73Kyle Biedermann (R)R-79%
71Stan Lambert (R)R-78%
8Cody Harris (R)R-78%
62Reggie Smith (R)R-78%
3Cecil Bell (R)R-78%
72Drew Darby (R)R-77%
87Four Price (R)R-77%
69James Frank (R)R-77%
9Chris Paddie (R)R-77%
57Trent Ashby (R)R-77%
21Dade Phelan (R)R-77%
4Keith Bell (R)R-76%
1Gary VanDeaver (R)R-76%
18Ernest Bailes (R)R-75%
7Jay Dean (R)R-75%
11Travis Clardy (R)R-74%
20Terry Wilson (R)R-73%
10John Wray (R)R-73%
81Brooks Landgraf (R)R-73%
30Geanie W. Morrison (R)R-73%
24Greg Bonnen (R)R-72%
98Giovanni Capriglione (R)R-72%
130Tom Oliverson (R)R-72%
25Dennis Bonnen (R)R-72%
15Steve Toth (R)R-72%
6Matt Schaefer (R)R-70%
63Tan Parker (R)R-70%
128Briscoe Cain (R)R-70%
44John Kuempel (R)R-69%
56Charles "Doc" Anderson (R)R-69%
33Justin Holland (R)R-68%
55Hugh Shine (R)R-67%
12Kyle Kacal (R)R-67%
70Scott Sanford (R)R-66%
99Charlie Geren (R)R-66%
91Stephanie Klick (R)R-66%
127Dan Huberty (R)R-65%
122Lyle Larson (R)R-63%
89Candy Noble (R)R-63%
17John Cyrier (R)R-63%
84John Frullo (R)R-63%
106Jared Patterson (R)R-63%
150Valoree Swanson (R)R-63%
133Jim Murphy (R)R-62%
129Dennis Paul (R)R-60%
14John Raney (R)R-59%
94Tony Tinderholt (R)R-58%
85Phil Stephenson (R)R-58%
93Matt Krause (R)R-58%
23Mayes Middleton (R)R-57%
121Steve Allison (R)R-57%
29Ed Thompson (R)R-57%
92Jonathan Stickland (R)R-57%
97Craig Goldman (R)R-57%
28Gary Gates (R)R-57%
64Lynn Stucky (R)R-57%
126Sam Harless (R)R-57%
32Todd Hunter (R)R-56%
67Jeff Leach (R)R-55%
26Rick Miller (R)R-55%
96Bill Zedler (R)R-55%
66Matt Shaheen (R)R-55%
43J.M. Lozano (R)R-55%
54Brad Buckley (R)R-54%
108Morgan Meyer (R)R-54%
132Gina Calanni (D)R-53%
47Vikki Goodwin (D)R-53%
65Michelle Beckley (D)R-52%
138Dwayne Bohac (R)R-52%
135Jon Rosenthal (D)R-52%
114John Turner (D)R-52%
45Erin Zwiener (D)R-52%
52James Talarico (D)R-51%
112Angie Chen Button (R)R-51%
136John Bucy III (D)EVEN
134Sarah Davis (R)D-51%
113Rhetta Bowers (D)D-51%
102Ana-Maria Ramos (D)D-51%
115Julie Johnson (D)D-51%
107Victoria Neave (D)D-53%
105Thresa "Terry" Meza (D)D-54%
117Philip Cortez (D)D-54%
34Abel Herrero (D)D-55%
31Ryan Guillen (D)D-56%
74Poncho Nevárez (D)D-57%
118Leo Pacheco (D)D-58%
144Mary Ann Perez (D)D-60%
41Bobby Guerra (D)D-60%
78Joe Moody (D)D-61%
119Roland Gutierrez (D)D-62%
148Anna Eastman (D)D-63%
149Hubert Vo (D)D-63%
125Ray Lopez (D)D-63%
124Ina Minjarez (D)D-64%
35Oscar Longoria (D)D-65%
38Eddie Lucio III (D)D-65%
120Barbara Gervin-Hawkins (D)D-65%
80Tracy O. King (D)D-66%
50Celia Israel (D)D-66%
123Diego Bernal (D)D-66%
48Donna Howard (D)D-66%
116Trey Martinez-Fischer (D)D-66%
22Joe Deshotel (D)D-67%
37Alex Dominguez (D)D-68%
137Gene Wu (D)D-68%
145Christina Morales (D)D-68%
101Chris Turner (D)D-68%
27Ron Reynolds (D)D-70%
77Evelina "Lina" Ortega (D)D-71%
79Art Fierro (D)D-71%
39Armando "Mando" Martinez (D)D-71%
40Terry Canales (D)D-72%
143Ana Hernandez (D)D-73%
42Richard Peña Raymond (D)D-74%
36Sergio Muñoz Jr. (D)D-74%
103Rafael Anchia (D)D-75%
75Mary González (D)D-75%
90Ramon Romero Jr. (D)D-76%
95Nicole Collier (D)D-76%
140Armando Walle (D)D-76%
139Jarvis Johnson (D)D-77%
142Harold Dutton Jr. (D)D-77%
104Jessica González (D)D-78%
100Lorraine Birabil (D)D-78%
111Yvonne Davis (D)D-79%
49Gina Hinojosa (D)D-79%
147Garnet Coleman (D)D-80%
146Shawn Thierry (D)D-80%
76Cesar Blanco (D)D-80%
46Sheryl Cole (D)D-82%
109Carl Sherman Sr. (D)D-83%
51Eddie Rodriguez (D)D-84%
131Alma Allen (D)D-85%
141Senfronia Thompson (D)D-87%
110Toni Rose (D)D-88%

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Daniel Friend

Daniel Friend

Daniel Friend is a reporter for The Texan. He participated in a Great Books program at Azusa Pacific University and graduated in 2019 with a degree in Political Science. He has studied C.S. Lewis’s science fiction trilogy and in his spare time you might find him writing his own novel partly inspired by the series.