A table and map of Texas House district ratings can be found here.
The Data
The index is modeled after the Cook Political Report’s Partisan Voting Index (PVI), which considers the partisan leanings of all congressional districts in the nation by looking at the share of votes cast for Republicans and Democrats in the past two presidential elections.
Whereas Cook’s PVI is limited to the only national election, a number of statewide elections can be used to compare Texas legislative districts.
Using data obtained from the Texas Legislative Council, the TPI identifies each district’s median percentage of Republican votes relative to those cast for Democrats out of every statewide race.
The district medians for the 2016 and 2018 general elections are then averaged to calculate the index number for each district.
The Results
Statewide during the last presidential election in 2016, voting results between Republicans and Democrats favored the GOP with a median share of 58 percent.
In 2018, during the U.S. Senate race between Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Beto O’Rourke, results shifted notably toward Democrats, but Republicans still led with a median of 54 percent.
Consequently, the current statewide TPI is labeled as R-56%.
Of the 31 senate districts in Texas, 20 have a TPI favoring Republicans while the other 11 favor Democrats.
Three of the seats closest to a 50-50 average are controlled by members of the opposite party.
Sens. Beverly Powell (D-Burleson) in SD 10 and Nathan Johnson (D-Dallas) in SD 16 represent slightly Republican-leaning districts with TPIs of R-51% and R-52%, respectively.
Powell and Johnson were first elected in 2018 when the median share in statewide elections for both districts shifted to give Democrats a slight edge at 51 percent.
Sen. Pete Flores (R-Pleasanton) of SD 19, meanwhile, represents a slightly more Democratic-leaning district with a TPI of D-55%.
Flores was also elected to his seat in 2018, but won the race during a special election a few months before the November general election.
Of the 16 state senate races in 2020, Flores’ seat has the greatest odds of changing parties.
The South Texas seats of SD 20 and SD 21 have the next highest chance of swapping representation, but both are still solidly Democratic with a TPI of D-59%.
All other districts on the ballot this year are rated above 60 percent favoring the party of the incumbent.
By the index’s rating, the most Republican senate district is SD 31, currently held by Sen. Kel Seliger (R-Amarillo), with a TPI of R-80%.
In contrast, the most Democratic district is SD 13, currently held by Sen. Borris Miles (D-Houston), with a TPI of D-84%.
The index can be viewed in the map or table below, or in a spreadsheet here.
| Senate District | Incumbent | Official TPI |
|---|---|---|
| Statewide | R-56% | |
| 31 | Kel Seliger (R) | R-80% |
| 3 | Robert Nichols (R) | R-79% |
| 30 | Pat Fallon (R) | R-76% |
| 28 | Charles Perry (R) | R-76% |
| 1 | Bryan Hughes (R) | R-75% |
| 24 | Dawn Buckingham (R) | R-72% |
| 4 | Brandon Creighton (R) | R-69% |
| 22 | Brian Birdwell (R) | R-69% |
| 18 | Lois Kolkhorst (R) | R-66% |
| 12 | Jane Nelson (R) | R-63% |
| 2 | Bob Hall (R) | R-63% |
| 11 | Larry Taylor (R) | R-62% |
| 5 | Charles Schwertner (R) | R-61% |
| 25 | Donna Campbell (R) | R-61% |
| 7 | Paul Bettencourt (R) | R-61% |
| 8 | Angela Paxton (R) | R-57% |
| 9 | Kelly Hancock (R) | R-56% |
| 17 | Joan Huffman (R) | R-54% |
| 16 | Nathan Johnson (D) | R-52% |
| 10 | Beverly Powell (D) | R-51% |
| 19 | Pete Flores (R) | D-55% |
| 20 | Juan "Chuy" Hinojosa (D) | D-59% |
| 21 | Judith Zaffirini (D) | D-59% |
| 15 | John Whitmire (D) | D-63% |
| 26 | Jose Menendez (D) | D-66% |
| 27 | Eddie Lucio (D) | D-67% |
| 14 | Sarah Eckhardt (D) | D-68% |
| 29 | Jose Rodriguez (D) | D-71% |
| 6 | Carol Alvarado (D) | D-72% |
| 23 | Royce West (D) | D-82% |
| 13 | Borris Miles (D) | D-84% |
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Daniel Friend
Daniel Friend is the Marketing and Media Manager for The Texan. After graduating with a double-major in Political Science and Humanities, he wrote for The Texan as a reporter through June 2022. In his spare time, you're likely to find him working on The Testimony of Calvin Lewis, an Abolition of Man-inspired novel and theatrical podcast.
