The Back MicThe Back Mic: Most Competitive 2022 State and Federal Races

Austin, TX, September 23, 2022 —

Most Competitive Races

The Texan’s Texas Partisan Index (TPI) analyzes the partisan leanings of districts based on previous precinct-by-precinct results from statewide elections over the last two cycles. Based on these ratings, a rough estimate can be gleaned of how competitive a given district is.

Texas statewide TPI is R-54%, which means Republicans running statewide benefit from an eight-point advantage over their Democratic opponents.

After redistricting two years ago, when Republicans shored up their advantages in many parts of the state, there are fewer competitive races than before. Below is a list of every race within the 20-point spread between D-60% and R-60% in which there is a candidate from both major parties.

Congress

15th Congressional District – D-52%

• Michelle Vallejo (D) vs. Monica de la Cruz (R)

23rd Congressional District – R-54%

• Tony Gonzales (R)* vs. John Lira (D)

28th Congressional District – D-57%

• Henry Cuellar (D)* vs. Cassy Garcia (R)

State Senate

Senate District 9 – R-59%

• Kelly Hancock (R)* vs. Gwen Burud (D)

Senate District 19 – D-57%

• Roland Gutierrez (D)* vs. Robert Garza (R)

Senate District 20 – D-59%

• Juan “Chuy” Hinojosa (D)* vs. Westley Wright (R)

Senate District 27 – D-56%

• Morgan Lamantia (D) vs. Adam Hinojosa (R)

State House

House District 28 – R-59%

• Gary Gates (R)* vs. Nelvin Adriatico (D)

House District 31 – R-57%

• Ryan Guillen (R)* vs. Martha Gutierrez (D)

House District 34 – D-57%

• Abel Herrero (D)* vs. Carolyn Vaughn (R)

House District 37 – R-53%

• Janie Lopez (R) vs. Luis Villarreal (D)

House District 41 – D-59%

• Bobby Guerra (D)* vs. John “Doc” Guerra (R)

House District 45 – D-58%

• Erin Zwiener (D)* vs. Michelle Lopez (R)

House District 47 – D-58%

• Vikki Goodwin (D)* vs. Rob McCarthy (R)

House District 52 – R-55%

• Caroline Harris (R) vs. Luis Echegaray (D)

House District 54 – R-55%

• Brad Buckley (R)* vs. Jonathan Hildner (D)

House District 55 – R-57%

• Hugh Shine (R)* vs. Tristian Sanders (D)

House District 61 – R-58%

• Frederick Frazier (R) vs. Sheena King (D)

House District 63 – R-57%

• Ben Baumgarner (R) vs. Denise Wooten (D)

House District 65 – R-58%

• Kronda Thimesch (R) vs. Brittney Verdell (D)

House District 66 – R-59%

• Matt Shaheen (R)* vs. Jesse Ringness (D)

House District 67 – R-58%

• Jeff Leach (R)* vs. Kevin Morris (D)

House District 70 – D-50%

• Mihaela Plesa (D) vs. Jamee Jolly (R)

House District 74 – D-58%

• Eddie Morales (D)* vs. Katherine Parker (R)

House District 94 – R-58%

• Tony Tinderholt (R)* vs. Dennis Sherrard (D)

House District 97 – R-59%

• Craig Goldman (R)* vs. Laurin McLaurin (D)

House District 108 – R-59%

• Morgan Meyer (R)* vs. Elizabeth Ginsberg (D)

House District 112 – R-55%

• Angie Chen Button (R)* vs. Elva Curl (D)

House District 115 – D-55%

• Julie Johnson (D)* vs. Melisa Denis (R)

House District 118 – R-50%

• John Lujan (R)* vs. Frank Ramirez (D)

House District 121 – R-56%

• Steve Allison (R)* vs. Rebecca Moyer DeFelice (D)

House District 129 – R-59%

• Dennis Paul (R)* vs. Kat Marvel (D)

House District 133 – R-57%

• Mano DeAyala (R)* vs. Mohamad Maarouf (D)

House District 134 – D-57%

• Ann Johnson (D)* vs. Ryan McConnico (R)

House District 138 – R-56%

• Lacey Hull (R)* vs. Stephanie Morales (D)

House District 147 – D-59%

• Penny Shaw (D)* vs. Kay Smith (R)

State Board of Education

District 1 – D-58%

• Melissa Ortega (D) vs. Michael Travis Stevens (R)

District 2 – D-52%

• Victor Perez (D) vs. LJ Francis (R)

District 3 – D-55%

• Marisa Perez-Diaz (D)* vs. Ken Morrow (R)

District 6 – R-59%

• Will Hickman (R)* vs. Michelle Palmer (D)

District 7 – R-59%

• Julie Pickren (R) vs. Dan Hochman (D)

*Denotes an incumbent.

See the TPI rating for every district and county in the state here and view the fundraising numbers for each of these candidates on The Texan’s War Room.