A September poll with the same premise found Trump up five points on Biden.
Trump leads by 30 points with voters who will cast ballots on Election Day while those opting vote by mail swing to Biden by 32 points. Those planning to vote early in-person trend Biden by two points.
On the favorability rating, Biden improved his standing significantly since the last poll. A net -11 percent favorable/unfavorable rating shifted to a net -2 percent. Trump’s, meanwhile, remained essentially unchanged at a net +1 favorable/unfavorable rating.
The Biden campaign announced a $6 million television ad buy through Election Day two weeks ago, but then mysteriously canceled large portions while still maintaining some presence.
Trump’s job approval among those polled is a narrow 49 percent approve to 48 percent disapprove, and he has a net -5 percent rating for his handling of the pandemic.
The RealClearPolitics polling average of Texas places Trump ahead of Biden by four points.
In Texas’ U.S. Senate race, Cornyn retains a six-point lead over Democratic challenger MJ Hegar. Cornyn’s fundraising advantage was essentially washed away after Hegar pulled in $14 million in the third quarter, doubling the incumbent’s haul.
Cornyn has a +12 percent favorable/unfavorable rating to Hegar’s +7 percent.
Democrats, at least rhetorically, are emphatic that Texas remains in play not only at the local and state legislative level, but at the top of the ticket, too. Lots of polling indicates a tight race, but one pollster who accurately predicted Trump’s victory in 2016 where others faltered believes Texas is relatively safe for the incumbent president.
Nonetheless, Trump’s nine-point win in 2016 underperformed the near-16 point victory in Texas by Romney in his 2012 losing presidential bid.
The poll was conducted from October 16-19 and surveyed 1,145 likely voters with a ±2.9 percent margin of error.
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Brad Johnson is a senior reporter for The Texan and an Ohio native who graduated from the University of Cincinnati in 2017. He is an avid sports fan who most enjoys watching his favorite teams continue their title drought throughout his cognizant lifetime. In his free time, you may find Brad quoting Monty Python productions and trying to calculate the airspeed velocity of an unladen swallow.