Based on this poll, Trump is up one point over Biden.
The poll surveyed 1,166 self-identified voters between May 28 and June 1. The stated margin of error is ± 2.9 percent.
Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy said of the results, “Too tight to tell in Texas. As the country confronts chaos and COVID-19, perhaps one of the most important states of all is a toss-up.”
The general election is all-but-set after Biden pulled away from Democratic opponent Bernie Sanders (I-VT) on Super Tuesday and Sanders dropped out in early April.
Each candidate is overwhelmingly supported by their respective party voters, unsurprisingly. But Biden received more independent support than Trump by a ratio of 45:36.
On other questions, however, Trump fared better than Biden with independents. 54 percent of respondents said Trump would do a better job handling the economy compared to Biden’s 40 percent.
Conversely, Biden leads from voters on the question of which candidate would handle COVID-19 response better with 47 percent to Trump’s 45.
Biden’s favorability ratings in Texas are 38 percent view him favorably and 45 percent unfavorably. Trump, meanwhile, has a 42:50 percent favorable/unfavorable rating.
The Texas Democratic Party’s Executive Director, Manny Garcia, said of the poll, “The polls released the last few weeks continue to reaffirm an unwavering truth this election cycle: Texas is the biggest battleground state in the country. Voters are increasingly entrusting Democratic leaders with the future of their communities. Republicans have proven utterly incapable of managing times of crisis, and that has hurt them up and down the ballot. This is our moment.”
James Dickey, Chairman of the Texas Republican Party, differed, stating, “Quinnipiac’s numbers for the President in Texas are nothing new. Most polling agencies have reported such a margin or an average of such a margin. No breaking news here. It’s reminiscent of the 2016 election when polls showed Hillary Clinton running neck-in-neck with the President and we saw the blowouts in critical base states and key swing states that ensued. President Trump is a friend to Texans, to our economy, and to our energy industry. Try as they might to turn Texas blue, as they tried in our Special Election in House District 28 in January, the Democrats continue to meet the force of Republican action across Texas and Republican policies winning for Texans in the Lone Star State.”
Trump’s job approval rating is at 45 percent, steady from September 2019.
Compared with other Texas Republican figures, Governor Greg Abbott received 56 percent favorable rating, while Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) is even with the president and Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) is lower at 37 percent favorable — but with a relatively low unfavorable rating at 36 percent.
On the question of mail-in voting, overall, Texans favor voting-by-mail 59-40 percent. But when broken up along party lines, Democrats favor it by a whopping 91:9 margin, Independents are closer at 61:39 in favor, and Republicans are opposed by a margin of 68:31 percent.
The Texas Supreme Court ruled last month that voters cannot use COVID-19-contraction anxiety as an excuse to vote-by-mail based on current statute.
Regarding reopening, 49 percent of Texans say the state is lifting restrictions at an “About Right” pace, while 38 percent say it’s happening too fast and 12 percent say it’s too slow.
About 50 percent of Texans say the Texas’ economy is in “good” shape despite the pandemic’s closures.
The country is 153 days from the general election.
View the full polling report, below.
Editor’s Note: This article has been updated to include the statement from the Texas Democratic Party and Texas Republican Party.
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Brad Johnson is an Ohio native who graduated from the University of Cincinnati in 2017. He is an avid sports fan who most enjoys watching his favorite teams continue their title drought throughout his cognizant lifetime. In his free time, you may find Brad quoting Monty Python productions and trying to calculate the airspeed velocity of an unladen swallow.